“BETWEEN SUPPORT AND CAUTION”: THE ATTITUDE OF THE POLISH AUTHORITY AND SOCIETY TOWARDS THE ISSUE OF ARMS SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE IN 2014‒2015

Abstract

The article analyzes the attitudes of the Polish authorities and society regarding the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine in 2014–2015. It is noted that discussions surrounding the possible provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine significantly divided the Polish political scene and society. The leading political parties in Poland ‒ “Civic Platform” and “Law and Justice” supported the idea of selling arms to Ukraine, while the “Democratic Left Alliance” and “Your Movement” remained skeptical on this issue. Among ordinary Poles, the idea of providing military assistance to official Kyiv did not gain significant support. It is noted that various Polish press and online media frequently published materials in which calls for providing Ukraine with heavy weapons were expressed. The most supportive stance on this issue was demonstrated by conservative socio-political weeklies such as Sieci, Do Rzeczy, and “Gazeta Polska”. The conclusions indicate that, despite prolonged discussions within the Polish political sphere, the government of Ewa Kopacz in 2014–2015 did not decide to supply arms to Ukraine. An analysis of public statements by Polish politicians, press reports, expert assessments and the results of opinion polls suggests that, despite widespread interest in this issue and prolonged discussions in 2014–2015, the Polish authorities and the Polish public were, on the whole, not prepared to take a decision on supplying lethal weapons to the Donbas. This position was explained by a pragmatic approach of the Polish authorities and society, aimed at avoiding direct confrontation with Russia, fears of escalation of the armed conflict in Donbas, ambivalent public attitudes, and the prioritization of national security. Statements by government officials and representatives of the Polish political establishment regarding the dispatch of weapons to the Donbas ran counter to the views of ordinary Poles. A public opinion poll conducted by “SW Research” on behalf of the socio-political weekly “Newsweek Polska” in early 2015 showed that half of the Poles surveyed were against supplying arms to Ukraine. In contrast, only half as many respondents supported this decision.